也谈谈毒和当下的球鞋文化Sneaker Culture in the Age of Du (Poizon)

"There aren't many who are truly in it — most are just fence-sitters chasing the wind. The way people worship the hype now feels like a cult."

Part 3

Today is absolutely a big day for sneakers: the long-hyped Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 officially dropped at a retail price of ¥1,299. Even with a decent supply, on the resale market it's solidly a "sky-high" ¥5,000-plus. Add to that Du's recently announced new funding round, and it feels like a good time to talk about today's sneakers, sportswear brands, and sneaker culture. (A quick note for readers outside China: Du, or Poizon, is China's largest sneaker-trading platform — a resale marketplace with built-in authentication.)

"Forever an Also-Ran on SNKRS"

This morning's SNKRS drop had absurdly low odds — so low that instead of asking "did you win?", people were asking "have you seen anyone win?" Meanwhile the US resale price on StockX had already hit around $900 (¥6,000). If global supply reaches 100,000 pairs, then at ¥5,000 × 100,000, the market value comes to ¥500 million — meaning the Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 will soak up ¥500 million worth of buying power from the sneaker world worldwide. And that's the showing of just one shoe.

The Air Jordan 1 blew up last year, becoming the most frequently released silhouette of the year — over a full year, there were 55 colorways in total, meaning a new Jordan 1 hit the market less than once a week. Among them, the OFF-WHITE collab, the no-resale edition, the Union collab, and the SoleFly collab all became red-hot must-have items of the year. And the black-red toe and black-purple toe, spun off the "Black Toe" element, likewise became targets that Sneaker players worldwide scrambled to cop — even triggering a fair few violent incidents. To buy every single Air Jordan shoe from 2018 would cost $32,800 — in other words, close to ¥230,000 — and that's assuming you could get them all at retail. Even more staggering, the Air Jordan 1 isn't even Nike's absolute trump card. It was the Jordan 11 "Concord" that had the single highest sales of any new Jordan release in 2018, with supply well over one million pairs. Old man Jordan is probably counting money in his sleep.

Du basically carved out a market on the streetwear-goods side, a very shrewd move: a strong core user base, one that hadn't been served before, and with pretty considerable buying power. Once the market's up and running, you can extend into every other category tied to streetwear, and as a platform you can later launch your own house brand — the margins there are extremely, extremely high, but only on the condition that the trading platform has really strong liquidity. And though Du has been dogged by counterfeit controversy the whole way, it doesn't seem to dampen users' buying enthusiasm one bit. By the middle of last year, Du's monthly GMV was already close to ¥200 million, on track for ¥2–3 billion for the full year. This March its MAU topped 1.4 million, and it's projected to hit ¥6–7 billion this year.

"Adidas's Problems and Puma's Rise"

Adidas's report last year was dazzling, but there was only one reason for the rapid growth: Yeezy. Now it's a great hand played terribly. Before 2018, Adidas held a commanding position: the e-commerce platform build-out represented by Adidas Confirmed was basically complete. Its trident (Ultraboost & NMD & EQT) swept the low-to-mid market like an autumn wind clearing dead leaves — unstoppable. Yeezy and Y-3 ruled the high-end line. Strong in sport, with the best individual (Messi) and best team (Germany's national team, Real Madrid), on paper it looked full of confidence heading into 2018's marquee honors and events. And Harden, until that day, was seen as one of only two MVP candidates. The 4D wasn't mature yet, but launching it in year two or even later was nothing to worry about.

But this year's new landscape is: the e-commerce edge is gone, and Nike has caught up and established a top-of-the-industry system.

YEEZY went from a lone standout to getting mobbed by an army of Jordans against a lone Yeezy. European streetwear outlet Highsnobiety teamed with the StockX sneaker exchange, and using the latter's real transaction data, released a Q1 2019 sneaker-resale report. In the "market share" section, the patent-leather UNC-blue Air Jordan 1 "UNC" ranked first, taking 19% of the TOP 10 — meaning of every 100 of those 10 shoes resold, 19 were the patent-leather UNC Air Jordan 1. On the bestseller list, the Air Jordan 1 held four spots, more than half once you add Jordan 6, while YEEZY had only the Europe- and Americas-exclusive Yeezy 350 Boost V2.

In soccer, Real Madrid's three-peat Champions League run barely saved face, but at the World Cup Adidas got trounced. Its top card, Germany, went home early (my heart breaks for Die Mannschaft), while Argentina and Spain both bowed out in the round of 16. By contrast, Nike landed four of the eight quarterfinal spots — and most perfectly, the four teams neatly avoided each other in the quarters and ultimately swept both the title and runner-up.

While Adidas and Nike slugged it out, the "quietly bold" Puma walked its own path — not just holding steady and grabbing its share of the market, but climbing the whole way. Puma knew full well that markets like soccer and basketball were monopolized by Nike and Adidas, so it smartly nailed down its own positioning, choosing to break in through the women's market. Rihanna, Selena Gomez, and BTS — a considerable share of these stars' fan bases are women. Puma's conversion of them was a resounding success, and nearly all of its impressive growth came from exactly there. Without many high-end collabs, without limited drops, it belongs to the "silent majority" — but to the massive user base that actually contributes sales and profit. Its contribution to the financials is real and tangible. Puma's current image is a bit more like a luxury brand than a sportswear label. Maybe that's down to the management behind it: the group behind Puma also manages Bottega Veneta, Gucci, YSL, and more.

Sneaker Culture Is Born of Its Time and Its Environment

Sneaker culture has caught fire over the last couple of years, but a lot of people around me are nostalgic for the sneaker culture that formed back in the day. From my own experience, and for those who got into sneakers relatively early, the earliest common thread was: couldn't afford them.

You have to understand, from the time I started watching ball (2005), Nike and Air Jordan prices basically sat in that ¥1,000–1,500 range the whole time, and given the income and spending levels back then, the fans who could pull the trigger without blinking are simply not comparable to today's. Everyone was in the same boat, staring longingly at the display cases at the mall, and it was hard — or took a long time — to finally own (buy) a pair of shoes you loved. With no easy way to own the sneakers they adored, fans generally went to magazines, newspapers, and forums to look, to learn, to study. Plenty of people back then probably bought Slam Dunk mags, Dunk, and SIZE, pulling the posters out of the books and taping them to their bedroom walls. Picture it: when you've saved up for ages and can finally bring a pair home, that rush of joy is nothing like an unboxing today. After all that, the meaning often already far outstripped the shoe itself, with far more emotion woven in.

Then you'd go talk it over with friends, drawing a sense of achievement beyond the shoes themselves. That's how the culture within sneakers got dug up, spread, and settled, step by step. Because it wasn't easy, people invested and layered on so much emotion.

It Was the Best of Times, and It Was the Worst of Times

Today's sneaker market is the most prosperous — and also the most riddled with chaos: blind bandwagon-hopping, brainless flipping, everyone-a-reseller — these are labels today's sneaker circle and sneaker culture can't peel off. At the same time, the mobile-internet era and the rise of all kinds of short-video apps have pushed sneaker culture not just toward the mainstream but toward an ever-wider — and ever-younger — audience. Wherever eyeballs go, money is sure to follow — more and more people step into this circle, drawing in more and more capital in an endless stream.

The secondary market has been infiltrated by a batch of fakes good enough to fool sneaker authenticators, passing off the counterfeit as real. These unnerving high-quality replicas are "supervised" and crafted by professional authenticators — people who know the circle, understand the psychology, know both themselves and the enemy — producing a batch of fakes convincing enough to pass, mixing the fish eyes in with the pearls. And fake shoes, high-quality replicas, and gray-channel goods are an "unbearable weight" that belongs to China's Sneaker scene, and China's alone.

What's the standard or basis for authenticating a shoe? A store receipt? A clear photo of the midsole stamp? A pro authentication report? All three of those have stopped working today — 10 years ago, a Hong Kong receipt and POS slip became the industry-recognized standard fake-shoe combo; three years ago, the Air Jordan 5 Retro OG Black Metallic turned every sneaker player into a professional stamp analyst. Today, stories of a shoe bought on platform A being authenticated as fake when sold to platform B are basically endless. Any way to fix these problems? Sorry — from where things stand, no.

The barrier to flipping and reselling keeps dropping, which also makes consumers focus more on price than on the shoe itself. And on the question of culture and sentiment, plenty of people say it outright, no hedging: "Being in the sneaker business is about making money — sentiment's got nothing to do with it."

"Sneakers, in the End, Are a Story Between People and Culture"

A few years ago, a kid at school could look cool just wearing a basic pair; now, a kid on campus without a pair of AJs or Yeezys acts like it's some kind of disgrace.

Markets never go only up — they cycle, one period after another. Only when the tide goes out do you find out who's swimming naked. We can't talk about culture with commerce stripped away. So whether it's brands or consumers, whether the market is healthy or not, in the end it all settles: whether it's a group of people or some good products, it ultimately becomes part of the culture. People get into sneakers for all sorts of reasons, but what settles and stays is only the culture — nowhere near as simple as flipping and hype drops.

Right now a lot of people are just consuming to follow the trend, thinking that if they just slip on those hot sneakers they're the coolest thing in the universe, number one on Earth — but they're still a long way from being a hypebeast.

A lot of friends love that EDC line: "Money always comes second; the love is what matters most." So — does money really rank only second in your heart? Is love really what matters most? Do you like the shoe because you genuinely like it for yourself, and not so others can see you have it and envy you? A shoe, in the end, belongs to you, not to the trend. The essence of a trend is rebellion, and not following.

Shanghai People Sit Atop the "Sneaker Hierarchy"

Finally, let's talk about Shanghai. Friends in the sneaker and street-fashion scene have all more or less heard the legend of "Shanghai's sneaker-school districts." As the name suggests, a "sneaker-school district" refers to areas where buying shoes is extremely convenient. Exactly how many sneaker and streetwear stores Shanghai has, there's no accurate figure. But mention stores and the one that comes to mind has to be the "sinful" Nike Shanghai 001. Beyond flagship-level stores like 001, streetwear shops like Concepts, FLY, and INVINCIBLE all have brick-and-mortar locations in Shanghai. The sheer number of stores, the breadth of product lines, the speed of turnover, and the density of limited-shoe drops are nearly unrivaled in China — one of the reasons the vast Sneaker crowd yearns for Shanghai.

On top of that, when it comes to cities with the most city-exclusive shoes "produced," Shanghai says it's second and no one dares claim first: the "Xiaolongbao," the "Milk"; Jordan Brand's Air Jordan 5 Shen and Air Jordan 10 Shanghai are dream grails in countless players' hearts. The release of these exclusive special editions keeps amplifying and spreading that sentiment without limit. So if you want to get into sneakers — go to Shanghai.

Back to Where It All Began

At a Thunder game last year, while Russell Westbrook was resting on the sideline, a kid nearby was eating pizza. Westbrook tried to trade one of his shoes for the boy's pizza — and at first, he failed. In that kid's eyes, nothing you think is precious can beat the thing he loves most.

I hope your love is real love, and I hope what you like is really what you like.